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GBP: Upside risks build-up around the BoE meeting - HSBC

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at HSBC, suggests that there are upside risks for the GBP around the BoE meeting with the possibility of more MPC members voting for a hike and the GBP-USD has room to move towards 1.53 near term.

Key Quotes

“The Bank of England announces its rate decision at 12pm UK time today with all eyes on the MPC vote split. Last month the vote was 8-1 in favour of unchanged rates, with Ian McCafferty the sole hawk voting for a hike. Although HSBC’s economists think the vote will remain 8-1, there is a risk the vote shifts further to the hawkish camp, with Kristin Forbes or Martin Weale possibly joining Ian McCafferty. Therefore the risk for the GBP around the meeting is likely to be tilted to the upside.”

“The rates market is not pricing in a hike until late 2016, and the GBP has been one of the weaker G10 performers since the last BoE meeting. Meanwhile, the IMM shows speculative GBP short positions have increased in recent weeks. We think the BoE could hike in the first half of 2016 – well before the market is pricing – once the Fed has its first hike out of the way in December. This cyclical pressure should help GBP rally in the coming months. Near term, upside targets in GBP-USD could be the 50 and 200 day moving averages at 1.5238 and 1.5318, respectively.”

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