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China: November inflation data preview - ING

FXStreet (Delhi) – Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, suggests that the Chinese November CPI and PPI data are due tomorrow at 9:30am local time and the consensus forecasts are 1.4% for CPI inflation and -6.0% for PPI inflation (prior 1.3% and -5.9% respectively).

Key Quotes

“The 2H14 energy price crash is associated with a step down in inflation (see figure); CPI inflation to 1.4% YoY YTD in October from 2.0% in 2014 and PPI inflation to -5.2% from -1.9%. The step downs will retrace when the commodity price crash moves to the base of comparison, which on ING’s forecast would be in early 2016.

We do not see inflation becoming a policy issue in the near-term. Our CPI inflation forecast for 2016 is 1.5% (Bloomberg consensus 1.9%).”

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