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UK manufacturing production preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair extends its overnight side-trend into Europe and remains capped below the hourly 200-SMA located at 1.5061 on lack of demand for higher-yielding currencies as risk-off sentiment dominates markets following dismal Chinese trade data and the ongoing rout in commodities, especially oil. The cable hovers in a 20-pips slim range as markets remain cautious ahead of the manufacturing and industrial production data due to be published at 09.30GMT.

UK manufacturing output to slow at Q4 start

The manufacturing output, the main component of the total industrial output, is expected to show a sharp reversal from 0.8%, the largest monthly rise since April 2014. Oct’s manufacturing production is likely to decelerate to -0.1% m/m. While the total industrial production, which includes extraction of oil and gas from the North Sea, is seen picking-up pace from a decline of 0.2% in Sept to post a flat growth last month.

However, the industrial figures could surprise markets to the downside after November manufacturing PMI report form the UK declined to 52.7, from a revised 55.2 in October.

Analysts at LLoyds Bank noted, “October’s manufacturing PMI posted a sharp pickup, one particularly unexpected when set against a backdrop of sterling’s recent strength and signs of fragility in external demand. But with the PMI’s bounce failing to hold in November, and not confirmed by other survey indicators, we expect manufacturing output to give up some of its recent gains, and look for a 0.3% slide in October. Further downside potential for mining output, given weak oil prices, means that production overall is also likely to fall; we expect a 0.3% dip.”

While the research team at Societe Generale explained, “we think the 1.2% increase takes the level of output above that weak trend and thus we expect a reversal of 0.3% in manufacturing output in October."

GBP/USD Technical Levels

According to Omkar Godbole, Editor and Analyst at FXStreet, “Sterling’s 250-pip rally from Wednesday’s bottom, followed by a minor 100-120 pip correction (stalling near 50% fib retracement of the 250-pip rally at 1.5027 in Asia today) indicates the GBP bulls may make a comeback in Europe and take the pair higher to 1.51-1.5115 (50% of 1.5336-1.4895). A break higher could see the pair test 1.5159 (Thursday’s high). On the other hand, only a break below 1.5027 (50% of 1.4895-1.5159) would shift risk in favour of a break below 1.50 and re-test of 1.4957 (76.4% Of 1.4895-1.5159).”

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