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EUR/USD forecast: sidelined as Fed looms – Commerzbank and Rabobank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency keeps the recent range vs. the greenback in an uneventful first half of the week, taking EUR/USD to the upper-1.0800s as of writing.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “is seeing a small downside corrective move, as it attempts to absorb the massive rally from last week. There is scope for a further advance to the 1.1033 200 day ma and even the 1.1087/97 September low and 28th October high. Key resistance remains the 1.1228/17 2014-2015 downtrend and 55 week ma and while capped here the market will remain in a longer term down move”.

Furthermore, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley added “we do expect EUR/USD to trade lower on the back of interest rate differentials and we maintain a forecast of EUR/USD1.05 on a 3 mth view. That said, we remain reluctant to forecast parity for EUR/USD on this horizon based on the risk of a dovish tightening from the Fed later this month and the coincident reluctance of some ECB policy members to extend easing measures even more aggressively”.

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