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China’s November trade balance at $54.10 billion; exports weakened more than expected

FXStreet (Mumbai) - China's trade performance continued to remain sluggish in November. Exports declined worse-than-expected 6.8 percent on year on year comparison, marking fifth straight month of decline. Imports on the other hand declined 8.7 percent. Imports fell for the 13th drop in a row. Slide in imports were however lower than expected. This is possibly because of a slight improvement in Chinese domestic demand.

Reuters poll had showed analysts expected exports to fall by 5.0 percent, lower than October's 6.9 percent decline. Imports were expected to decline 12.6 percent after an extremely sharp 18.8 percent drop in October.

Trade surplus remained sizable last month. Trade surplus stood at $54.10 billion for November, lower than October's record high of $61.64 billion. ANZ economists Li-Gang Liu and Louis Lam assumes the trade surplus will likely “offset capital outflows and fend off depreciation pressure on the yuan.”
The trade value is likely to drop 8 percent for 2015.It had increased 3.7 percent in 2014.The dip in trade value for 2015 indicates an weakening of the manufacturing sector which has weighed on demand for commodities.

Worries grow for China’s trading partners

General Administration of Customs’ data showed China imported more of copper, iron ore, crude oil, coal and soybeans in November by volume than in October. China's imports from the United States, the European Union and Japan dropped;while China’s imports from Australia declined by a double-digit rate.

China will likely continue to export large quantities of finished products such as steel and diesel fuel because domestic demand is not very strong.

The dismal export import figures have reiterated doubts that the Chinese economy will be able to recover even in the last quarter.The figures also spell more worry for China’s trading partners.

Global growth has suffered because of the slowing down of the emerging economies led by China, which had a significant impact on international trade.Kevin Lai, chief economist Asia Ex-Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong correctly points out "The U.S. is doing okay, but the problems with emerging markets are really quite big."

Today’s data highlights the need for more stimulus measures

To prevent a further slowdown of the Chinese economy the central bank had slashed rates six times in the last one year.The PBoC has also slashed the RRR. The government on the other hand eased restrictions on home buying to boost the property market.Several other measures were also initiated to stimulate infrastructure spending.Policies favouring foreign trade and exporters were also announced as the trade picture has remained “grim”for some time now. yuan was made to weaken to near four-month lows against the dollar to support export. However,given the current scenario only a drastic devaluation can help exporters.

Growth had slipped below the 7 per cent mark in the third quarter for the first time since the global financial crisis.Premier Li Keqiang however expressed confidence last week that China will reach its economic growth target of about 7 percent in 2015.

Today’s readings once again bring in focus expectations that the government will have to introduce more stimulus measures to raise domestic consumption in the coming quarters.More rates cuts is likely in the pipeline in 2016.

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