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ECB: Relief for the forced followers - RBS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Nick Mannion, Research Analyst at RBS, suggests that a less aggressive ECB means we now think it is unlikely that Riksbank will cut the repo rate in December (previously we expected a 15bp rate cut).

Key Quotes

“Very strong Swedish Q3 GDP data and healthy-looking November PMIs may increase confidence that inflation can rise: November CPI data this week should print close to central bank forecast.”

“Still, RBS Independent Economics colleagues expect further QE expansion and roughly 40bps of deposit rate cuts next year. That would mean renewed pressure on Riksbank to maintain interest rate differentials.”

“But with growth strengthening, inflation rising and monetary policy closer to reaching its limits, keeping up with the ECB may be a struggle in 2016. We stay short EUR/SEK, targeting 8.80.”

“Bank of England has so far stayed out of the global currency war. But it may struggle to maintain that approach in 2016. Short GBP/SEK is one of our top themes and trades for 2016 on slowing UK growth, intensifying EU exit concerns and as policymakers perhaps focus more on the exchange rate.”

“In Norway, a soft regional network survey supports our view that Norges Bank will revise down growth forecasts at its December meeting. A 25bp cut is still probable (the bank does not meet again until March).”

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