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India: GDP to grow 7.5% in 2015, 7.6% in 2016 – NAB

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at NAB economics, is forecasting Indian economy to register a 7.5% expansion in 2015, followed by 7.6% in 2016.

Key Quotes

• “India’s economy accelerated in the September quarter 2015, with Real GDP growing by 7.4% yoy, up from 7% in the June quarter.

• By expenditure, there was a clear improvement in investment spending. Manufacturing, finance and electricity were the standout industry sectors.

• India’s exports have declined through 2015; lower energy prices have contained the trade deficit.

• Headline inflation accelerated to 5% in October, driven partly by rising costs of pulses.

• The RBI held the policy rate at 6.75% in its December meeting, with an accommodative stance.

• To facilitate quicker transmission, it is finalising the methodology to allow banks to price loans based on marginal funding costs.

• NAB Economics is forecasting a further 50bp reduction in the policy Repo rate during 2016 to 6.25% by the end of 2016.

• The inflationary impact of the Pay Commission’s proposals and outlook for food and energy prices are factors that might influence this outcome.”

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