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China’s November trade balance: What can be expected?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - China trade surplus in November is expected to have widened compared to the October figure. In November China is expected to have recorded a trade balance of $63 billion, higher than the $61.64 billion registered in October. October had seen the largest trade surplus in the record given that imports fell much more than exports.

Exports likely fell 5 per cent in November as against 6.9 per cent fall in November. Imports on the other hand fell 12.6 per cent from the erstwhile 18.8 per cent. As the imports are likely to fall more than exports, one can expect an inflated trade balance for last month as well. The fall in export import figures once again highlight a contraction in the economy.

However, it must be noted that China is aiming at achieving a consumer led growth model. Hence it is only natural that the focus will shift to generation more demand and driving up prices. Consumer spending is yet to pick up in a big way. So far progress in this sector has not been able offset the losses incurred from declining import-export and widening trade balance.

Balance of Trade in China had averaged 76.18 USD Hundred Million from 1983 till 2015. It had reached an all-time high of 616.40 USD Hundred Million in October of 2015 and a record low of -319.71 USD Hundred Million in February of 2012.

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