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FED: Prospect of a rate hike in December looks good - ING

FXStreet (Córdoba) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the November US employment report contains upbeat details. According to him the next round of US data is likely to continue to build a good prospect for a December rate hike.

Key Quotes:

“Meanwhile the unemployment remained at 5% while average earnings growth came in at 0.2% MoM, resulting in a slight drop in the annual rate of wage growth to 2.3% from 2.5%. This should be a temporary drop as favourable base effects mean that if we get another 0.2% MoM rise next month the annual rate will jump back up to 2.7%YoY. The participation rate also rose. The only disappointment was a one-tenth increase in the underemployment rate to 9.9%.”

“Given Janet Yellen yesterday suggested payrolls growth of “under 100k per month” would be enough to absorb new entrants into the labour force, today’s report is surely consistent with the FOMC trigger clause for higher interest rates of “some further improvement in the labor market”. It should also mean that the Fed can be “reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term”.

“In terms of the next key data releases we expect retail sales set to show respectable growth of around 0.5% MoM while headline consumer price inflation is likely to rise on December 15th as the effects of last year’s plunge in the oil price starts to drop out of the annual comparison. As a result the prospect of a 25bp rate hike on December 16 looks good.

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