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US NFP data in focus with consensus pointing towards 200K figure – BBH

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that the focus now turns to the US employment data and the market is going into the jobs report with a general conviction that barring a significant negative surprise, the FOMC will hike rates in the middle of the month.

Key Quotes

“Yellen's speeches this week have encouraged these expectations, even though the purchasing managers surveys were disappointing. The strength of the ADP estimate also appears to have tempered the risks of a downside surprise. The consensus is for a 200k increase, which would be above the three-month average (~187k) and almost equidistant from the six-month average (~215k).”

“It will be difficult to match the strength was seen in October report that saw 271k net new jobs and a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings and a dip in the unemployment and under-employment rates.”

“Even some residual strength in the details coupled with a reasonable close to consensus job growth would boost confidence of a move. A sub-5% unemployment rate would be particularly constructive. It is difficult to envisage a repeat of the 0.4% increase in hourly earnings, but even an average (Six-month and 24-month) increase of 0.2%, would keep the year-over-year pace at 2.3%, would still be a favorable development even if off the 2.5% pace seen previously.”

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