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US NFP Preview: What the banks are expecting from November print?

FXStreet (Delhi) - The US job report is a key release ahead of the FOMC meeting on 16 December. The following are the expectations for today's NFP data as provided by the economists at 6 major banks along with some thoughts on the US unemployment rate into the event as provided by the FX strategists at these banks. After the NFP data posted a bumper 271K reading in October, all 6 banks see NFP to post weak number in November with unemployment rate set to remain the same or a marginal uptick can be expected.


In November, incoming data on labor markets point to a slower pace of job gains than the 271k total gain in October. On balance, we forecast that private payrolls added a net new 170k workers, with a 10k increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 180k jobs in November. We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 5k in November, as the employment sub-index in many regional manufacturing surveys suggested that manufacturing hiring remained sluggish. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 5.0%. Last, we expect another month of solid 0.3% m-o-m growth in average hourly earnings in November.

Deutsche Bank

Market expectations are for a 200k print which would be down from that bumper 271k reading in October. DB’s Joe Lavorgna is a little less optimistic and is forecasting a 150k gain reflecting the payback from that big October surge. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly (5.1% vs. 5.0%), and average hourly earnings (+0.1% vs. +0.4%) are poised to moderate following a calendar-related quirk that lifted October’s reading.

Danske Bank

A slower rate of job growth seems plausible and we estimate a November increase in non-farm payrolls of around 175,000, which is below the consensus estimate of approximately 200,000, but still well above labour force growth rate. We expect that average hourly earnings (AHE) increased by 0.3% m/m in November implying a decline in the annual growth rate from 2.5% y/y in October to 2.3% y/y in November.


Ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting later this month, the market is likely to take direction from the November payrolls report. TD expects the US economy to create 219K jobs in November, underscoring that the labor market has regained its footing after earlier missteps. This is above the market consensus for a rise of 200K.


In terms of the jobs figures, we expect payrolls growth of close to 200k with the unemployment rate holding at 5%, but annual average earnings growth is likely to slip due to an unfavourable base effect despite growing 0.2% MoM.


The fact that the ECB and the Fed will continue to go in different directions will be clear today when the jobs report for November is released in the US. Our NFP model has estimated today’s NFP gain at 179k, which is a little less than the Bloomberg consensus of 200k but would be good enough to confirm an FOMC rate increase on 16th December. Indeed, a much weaker gain than that would still not alter Fed action this month.

Click here to get more insight of the US November Nonfarm Payrolls Preview with view from our in house Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik titled “Nonfarm Payrolls: does it really matter now?

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