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Weaker US data raises concerns about EUR downside – Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, gives his strategic view on the EUR positioning.

Key Quotes

Event risk: Next week’s calendar seems anticlimactic given the Dec 3 ECB fireworks. Q3 region wide GDP the main release and even that is mostly academic given individual members have already released Q3 growth (Germany and France both reported +0.3%). The SNB meets Dec 10, a 25 bp cut in their policy rate expected though a 50bp move cannot be ruled out. The UK calendar includes a BoE meeting, IP and trade data as well as the Halifax and RICS housing data.

Bias: Pockets of weaker US data raising some doubts about EUR downside, especially given how stretched EUR appears and as we approach year-end position squaring pressures. Inclined to look through that and focus on medium term downside potential. Some EUR short profit taking inevitable but if past ECB and Fed QE policy announcements are any guide it should not last more than a week or two before longer term downside resumes. Our year-end 1.04 EUR/USD target still a strong base case.

Until the 10 Dec SNB meeting and a likely 25bp if not 50bp cut in deposit rates is out of the way, CHF should remain an underperformer. USD/CHF a buy into 1.02 if seen. EUR/GBP strength a fade and GBP/USD sub-1.50 offering some value especially with barely 60% odds for a +25bp hike priced though end-2016.”

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