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Key events ahead - Westpac

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac noted the key events today.

Key Quotes:

"Asia’s data calendar is low key: final Korean Q3 GDP and the Nov China Caixin/Markit services PMI.

There is great potential for EUR volatility as the ECB announces its policy decision, followed by the press conference by President Draghi starting 45 minutes later. Draghi and selected colleagues have clearly signalled that there is sufficient risk of undershooting the ECB’s inflation target to warrant further loosening of monetary settings. No change in policy would cause such a surge in EZ yields and in the euro that even the hawks are likely to grudgingly agree to at least some action today. But there are many policy options on the menu so Draghi will have to fight hard to avoid underwhelming expectations.

A Reuters surveys of economists found most expecting an increase in the EUR60bn monthly asset purchases, with a median forecast of EUR75bn, while a deposit rate cut was widely expected. Recent ECB commentary makes clear that a deposit rate cut is the path of least resistance. Westpac looks for the deposit rate to be lowered from -0.2% to -0.3%, with risks of a deeper cut. Expanding the monthly total of bond purchases is not our base case, with expansion of the eligible assets also doubtful. However, Draghi should be able to produce agreement to extend the program beyond the current Sep 2016 conclusion, which is already conditional. Mar 2017 might be a compromise, or better (more realistic) would be to take the Fed’s lead and make it open-ended. Overall, this seems likely to disappoint enough investors to produce a squeeze on EUR, with spec short positions already the largest since early April.

The US data calendar highlight is the Nov non-manufacturing ISM, seen holding steady at 56.5, a much healthier reading than the manufacturing ISM. The employment index will be watched for final guidance on Friday’s official payrolls data. Oct’s index was a lofty 59.2. Fed chair Yellen makes her annual appearance before the congressional Joint Economic Committee. Her overall message should of course be the same as yesterday but the questions will be a lot more hostile."

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