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Technical lookout for G10 FX – SocGen

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, lists down the key technical levels for the major currency pairs for the near-term.

Key Quotes

“After taking support at a multi month trend (1.2850), USD/CAD is now retesting September highs. The up move is likely to continue towards massive upward channel limit near 1.35/1.3750 which also corresponds with a projection for the C wave. However, long dated indicators are diverging negatively while daily MACD is close to a resistance line, which suggest 1.35/1.3750 would be key levels. Only a sustained move above will signal possibility of a larger uptrend. USD/CAD is approaching towards multiyear upward channel limit at 1.35/1.3750, also a projection for C wave. Diverging monthly indicators suggest 1.35/1.3750 as an important hurdle and only a sustained move above will lead to a larger uptrend. Short term correction, if any, should be cushioned at daily upward trend line at 1.31.

AUD/USD has achieved our earlier highlighted target for rebound at 0.7350 which happens to be the upper limit of a triangle. With daily stochastic close to a ceiling, 0.7350 will be an immediate resistance. Multi month descending channel at 0.75 will be an important hurdle. After confirming H&S last year, AUD/USD looks to continue downtrend to 0.6250/0.60, projected target for the pattern, also the 76.4% retracement of up move from 2001 to 2011 with intermittent targets at 0.6750 and 0.65. Short term, a corrective recovery is in force, 0.75 will be a key resistance.

EUR/USD breached the flag formation within which corrective recovery since March evolved and is testing previous lows of 1.0550/1.05. Further downtrend towards monthly descending channel at 1.04 is not ruled out. Short term upside is likely to be capped at 1.08/1.0830 while flag limit 1.1270 will be important hurdle.

USD/CHF has given a break above median of a massive descending channel. Further uptrend towards weekly channel at 1.0420 and even towards 1.06 looks likely. Short term correction, if any, should be confined to parity. Triangle limit at 0.9840/0.9770 will be an important support.

GBP/USD faced stiff resistance at our advocated level of 1.55/1.5530 and has achieved downside target at May lows of 1.50. A break below will confirm H&S formation and lead to retest of graphical support at 1.48 and even towards 1.45. Short term recovery if any, is likely to face resistance at 1.5530.

EUR/GBP is hovering close to key support zone at 0.70/0.68, multiyear descending channel limit. Monthly RSI is at a higher level as compared to earlier trough highlighting receding downside momentum. Short term, a move above 0.7070/0.7110 will indicate a rebound 0.7240, 50% retracement since October.

After facing stiff resistance at multiyear trend (126), USD/JPY pulled back and achieved graphical support at 118.20. Since then a recovery has been in force however with monthly stochastic indicator giving a negative crossover, upside appears to be capped. Trend resistance since 1990 at 126 remains a key level.”

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