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USD trend intact despite data - Westpac

FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to Richard Franulovich, Strategist at Westpac, despite the latest round of US data that came below expectations, Greenback’s trend remains bullish.

Key Quotes:

“US Q4 GDP nowcasts are under pressure amid a steady run of weaker activity date in recent sessions including business surveys such as the Nov Chicago and ISM PMIs, the Nov Michigan and Conference Board consumer confidence indices and Oct personal income and spending, to name a few.”

“The only other instance when the two indices (PMI services and manufacturing) diverged so sharply was the late 1990s Asian crisis, where a familiar macro-economic backdrop confronted the US including weakening EM growth, falling commodity prices and a rising USD. Interestingly the services sector was not totally immune to weakness back then, with the services ISM falling through much of 1998. That said, it substantially outperformed the manufacturing sector ISM and more importantly US GDP growth tracked the relatively healthier services trends rather than manufacturing.”

“Overall the prospect of more mixed US data trends may create more whippy two-price action for the USD but should not upset the underlying bullish USD trend, at least vs the majors, for a few reasons.”

“There is understandable caution that it will be hard for the ECB to over-deliver later this week. But, after the ECB launched sovereign bond QE in late Jan 2015 short term core Eurozone yields continued to fall sharply, for a good two months after the announcement. EUR/USD briefly stabilised in the immediate wake of that announcement but then proceeded to fall sharply, from around 1.15 to 1.05 between mid-Feb and mid-March.”

“Chair Yellen more likely than not reinforces year-end lift-off and US rates have further to go to before lift-off is fully priced in - it may not be much but mechanically the front end-can rise a touch further and thus confer a little more support for USD.

“November payrolls later this week have a small skew in favour of beating expectations - seven of the last ten were all higher than consensus.

“The base effects of low energy prices will soon begin to fall out of annual inflation calculations giving at least the appearance of inflation that is running closer to the Fed’s goals, though admittedly this more of a headline rather than a core story.”

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