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RUB: Positive outlook - Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Deutsche bank, the Russian ruble (RUB) could appreciate over the next 12 months, against the euro and the US dollar, despite the stabilization at low levels of crude oil prices.

Key Quotes:

“Banks and corporations have de-leveraged their USD debt and depreciation has limited the fiscal impact of the oil slide by lowering the oil budget breakeven price.”

“Our commodity strategists are calling for stabilization in Brent and the ruble-oil relationship will weaken in the future at any rate”

“The oil budget breakeven price fell from over $100/bbl to $70/bbl making the same magnitude of undershoot unlikely to happen again.”

“Macro fundamentals are improving: we forecast a shallower recession in 2016 (-1.2%) and inflation should head back below 9% due to tight monetary conditions and fading pass-through from ruble depreciation”.

“Despite aggressive rates markets pricing carry is still formidable and valuation models see +10% RUB upside”.

“We recommend selling 12m USDRUB at 72.5 (target 63, stop loss 78) in harmony with our long 1Y RUB XCCY trade. Medium term we also like selling EUR/RUB spot targeting 8% total return.”

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