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US ISM: Division between service and manufacturing sector persists - Wells Fargo

According to analysts from Wells Fargo, the division between the manufacturing and service sectors persists in the ISM surveys. The noted that is odd that production and orders are in decline while employment is up.

Key Quotes:

“November’s overall ISM index at 48.6 is the first dip below the breakeven level of 50 recently and below the six-month average of 51.0. This reflects our view that growth will moderate. For the current quarter, we expect industrial production will be roughly flat and equipment spending will grow 5.5 percent (both quarterly annualized rates). So moderation? Yes, but recession? No.

“The ISM prices index came in at 35.5 in November—below the six-month average of 40.8 and a continued signal of weak input prices. None of the 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials. At least one industry commented that they were seeing deflation in raw materials. Comments from the petroleum and oil industry indicated that low oil prices are now the new reality.”

“Our producer price index forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 shows deflation and that is what we are getting. This reflects the continued adjustment in energy/commodity prices as well as the strength of the dollar. Such moderation in commodity prices contrasts with the increases in prices for consumer services—particularly rents and health care. This bifurcation of consumer inflation manifests another aspect of division.”

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