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Dec 1, 2015
RBA to keep rates through 2016, AUD/USD seen lower – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the RBA on hold during 2016 and the Aussie dollar to grind lower in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“While the RBA kept rates unchanged today and is likely to do so over the next year at least, we still expect AUD/USD to edge lower in the coming months as relative terms of trade and a looming Fed hike will weigh on the cross”.
“We do not expect AUD/USD to collapse as (i) long-term fundamentals, (ii) already aggressive pricing of monetary policy divergence, (iii) China stabilisation and (iv) stretched short speculative positioning will limit the downside potential. We forecast the cross at 0.68 in 12M”.
Key Quotes
“While the RBA kept rates unchanged today and is likely to do so over the next year at least, we still expect AUD/USD to edge lower in the coming months as relative terms of trade and a looming Fed hike will weigh on the cross”.
“We do not expect AUD/USD to collapse as (i) long-term fundamentals, (ii) already aggressive pricing of monetary policy divergence, (iii) China stabilisation and (iv) stretched short speculative positioning will limit the downside potential. We forecast the cross at 0.68 in 12M”.