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AUD/USD: Jam packed data loaded week with plenty to look for - Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the AUD/USD was rebuffed at 0.7240 late Sydney, sliding under 0.7200 in the London morning as the Shanghai Composite tumbled in afternoon trade to close -5.5%, its weakest day since 25 August and rather out of the blue.

Key Quotes

“Shanghai equities will be watched closely after Friday’s slide. The yuan is also on a weakening trend, with USD/CNH pushing above 6.45 on Friday for the first time since 10 September. Spot USD/CNY jumped at the open but then was fairly steady, closing CFETS at 6.3952. After Friday’s surprisingly high 6.3915 fixing, we expect a print around 6.3950 today but will be on watch for any IMF SDR “tweak”.”

“Australia’s busy data week starts with the TD Securities Nov inflation gauge and Q3 data on wages, company profits and inventories, which will help shape forecasts for Wednesday’s Q3 GDP report. The main focus is the official data at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Ahead of today’s data, Westpac’s forecast for GDP is 0.7% q/q, 2.1% y/y.”

“We look for another soft reading on company profits, -1%, in contrast to consensus of +1% (Q2 was -1.9%). Inventories should be about flat m/m but with plenty of scope to surprise. The data on wages and salaries will be important for estimates of GDP (income). Also due is Oct private sector credit, which was surprisingly strong in Sep, jumping 0.8% m/m, led by business lending. We look for a more muted 0.5% m/m.”

“There are various Asian data releases of passing interest but the main focus will be India's Q3 GDP, with expectations for a strong 7.3% y/y headline, up from 7.0% in Q2. Preliminary Nov German CPI is due but probably won't impact the ECB's decision Thu. The US data calendar is second tier: Oct pending home sales and Nov Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.”

“The IMF executive board meets today to decide on the composition of its reserve asset Special Drawing Rights (SDR). There seems no serious doubt that CNY will join USD, EUR, JPY and GBP in the basket. But its weighting will be watched closely. IMF staff calculations of 14-16% in July now seem too high, with recent newswire sources suggesting 10%. USD/CNH should be sensitive to this, with risks of initial yuan selling. The new weightings will not apply until Sep 2016. We do not expect AUD or NZD to suffer from the inclusion of CNY in the SDR.”

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