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Japan to announce core CPI, jobless rate and household spending data tomorrow

FXStreet (Mumbai) - A Reuters poll published on 20th November showed Japan's core consumer prices likely fell for in October for a third straight month. Household spending is expected to have risen slightly. The data indicates slow recovery for the Japanese economy which has entered into recession for the second time after PM Abe entered office in December 2012. The third quarter GDP shrank an annualized 0.8 per cent in the July-September period after suffering 0.7 per cent contraction in the previous quarter. The poor GDP figure revealed "Abenomics is struggling to pull the economy out of chronic stagnation.

A Reuters poll of 19 analysts showed the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices likely fell 0.1 per cent in October from a year ago. According to the poll, by autumn clothing sales probably helped to raise household spending to 0.1 per cent in October from a year earlier.

Consumer prices can be expected to stay at zero or slightly above for some more time as the impact of low oil prices ebbs. Also as the effect of weaker yen fades, import costs on raw materials and price rise in some products will likely stabilize.

The jobless rate held likely steady at 3.4 per cent in October, according to the poll. Wage recovery is believed to have remained sluggish while the jobs-to-applicants ratio was probably at 1.24 in October, recording the highest reading since January 1992 when the ratio was 1.25.

Japanese investment bank Nomura also thinks that a sharp acceleration in inflation is unlikely. Analysts at Nomura expect all-Japan core CPI inflation for October to remain negative.

The TPP, according to Nomura will have a direct impact on Japan's CPI data. Reduction of tariffs has reduced the prices of items that Japan imported and these price reductions are reflected in the CPI data. Nomura however expects the negative impact on Japan's CPI data via this direct route to be limited.

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