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USD: A hectic schedule ahead – Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, expects a weighty and highly consequential calendar headlined by two appearances by Chair Yellen, at the Economic Club of Washington (Wed) and before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee (Thu) – along with Nov non-farm payrolls and the ISM manufacturing survey.

Key Quotes

“It’s a safe bet that Yellen will strike a more upbeat tone and will reinforce Dec lift-off expectations at both appearances. The Fed’s Evans, Lockhart, Williams, Mester, Fischer, Bullard and Kocherlakota round out the Fedspeak calendar.

Bias: 74% odds for Dec Fed lift-off may seem high to some but viewed from another perspective the implied odds of an adverse shock that sees the Fed take a pass on Dec are 26%, (assuming Fed eff ective rises 25bp on a hike), unrealistically high just 3 weeks before that meeting.

If Nov payrolls come in close to 200k, as jobless claims suggest, markets will begin to look beyond lift-off and price in higher odds for a follow up March hike. Bottom line, yield support can continue to build for the USD. Tempting to look for a USD correction on a “dovish hike” and given year-end squaring pressures.

But Yellen will flag the dot plot as the most likely path and that is much more aggressive than market pricing, while core EZ yields can continue to fall post ECB easing. Certainly that’s what happened after the ECB announced sovereign QE in Jan. Onward and upward for the USD. Once through 100 the next big level is 102.15.”

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