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Sell EURCAD with USDCAD steady in a range - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that the USDCAD remains largely confined to familiar ranges between 1.3250 and 1.3370, a region where it has spent most of the last few weeks.

Key Quotes

“With interest rate differentials remaining supportive of further momentum higher, oil price developments appear to be serving as the primary driver this week. The stabilization there likely accounts for the widening divergence between current spot levels and our Fair Value measure. This continues to ratchet higher and now stands at 1.3415 today.”

“With EUR weakness squarely in focus, however, we think EURCAD looks poised to accelerate to the downside ahead of next week’s crucial ECB meeting on 3 December. As an initial target, we think a probe below the 1.40 mark appears likely over the next several days but we think a decline could extend further.”

“Next week is particularly dense with event risks for the FX market. While most observers have focused on those for the USD and EUR, we note that the CAD has more than its fair share. These include the September/Q3 GDP reports (1 Dec), the BoC rate decision (2 Dec), International trade data (4 Dec), the December OPEC meeting (4 Dec), and Canada’s November employment data (4 Dec). Against the backdrop of a broadly weaker EUR, however, we think the Canadian data and events simply need to meet expectations (rather than outperform) to create an attractive relative value opportunity.”

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