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USD: Uptrend is here to stay – Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, recommends to buy on dips in the USD as the uptrend for the currency remains intact.

Key Quotes

“Absent a significant adverse shock resulting in a materially weaker run of data and/or a deep risk-off episode over the next four weeks lift-off next month is assured. With markets pricing in a 70% probability, the implied odds of an adverse shock that veers the Fed off course are thus an unrealistically high 30% (assuming effective Fed Funds rises 25bp on a hike).”

“Yield support for the USD should thus continue to build into the Fed meeting. A probable “dovish” Fed hike as Chair Yellen emphasises a gentle trajectory suggests the Dec 16 hike could mark a temporary high for the USD, especially given the temptation to lighten positions into year’s end. But until then,.”

“The first week of Dec is an especially key one including two Fed Chair appearances, Nov payrolls, the much anticipated 3 Dec ECB meeting and OPEC’s bi-annual meeting.”

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