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EUR/USD risks slipping to 1.05 near term – Westpac

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Richard Franulovich, Strategist at Westpac, EUR/USD could visit the 1.05 handle in the next weeks.

Key Quotes

“Short term bund-Tsy spreads continue to crater against EUR, the 2yr spread hitting new nine-year lows almost daily as the already yawning gap between Fed and ECB policy expectations continues to grow”.

“Until the much anticipated Fed and ECB Dec meetings are both out of the way further material EUR downside seems very likely”.

“Positioning is far from over-extended too, the latest CFTC data showing net shorts about half the size that prevailed when EUR tested sub-1.05 in March”.

“Brexit a thorn in GBP’s side but growth and policy differentials remain the more compelling theme for the time being, UK growth is suddenly showing more vigour if the latest retailing, employment and PMIs are anything to go by while the ECB is of course set to extend QE for at least 6mths, step up pace of purchases to perhaps an extra EUR15-25bn per month and cut its deposit rate even further”.

EUR likely tests 1.05 in the sessions into the Dec 3 ECB meeting while EUR/GBP likely tests 0.69”.

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