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NZDUSD: Fundamentals and technical point lower - Westpac

FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the fundamentals and technicals point to a lower NZD/USD during the months ahead and the research house is biased towards selling on any bounces to 0.6500, targeting the low 0.62s.

Key Quotes

“Speculators amassed a record level of short NZD/USD positions in July and then reversed to a moderate long position in October, according to the CFTC futures positioning data. The latest update, as at 10 Nov, shows those longs were reduced slightly. The moderate long position at present does not present an obvious signal for NZD/USD, but it does at least say positioning is no impediment to our view NZD/USD will fall.”

“Since peaking in July 2014 at 0.8836, NZD/USD has been locked in a persistent downtrend, punctuated by periods of consolidation (e.g. Dec 2014, Mar 2015, Oct 2015). It resumed its decline on 15 October and with momentum clearly pointing downwards targets the Sep low of 0.6237 during the month ahead. Corrective bounces are likely to be capped by 0.6500 - a level which provide solid support last week.”

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