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USD/JPY long positions by margin traders fall - Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, notes that the JPY short positions at major OTC margin trading brokers declined to JPY2460bn ($20.5bn) as of end-October, from JPY3311bn the previous month, according to the Financial Futures Association of Japan.

Key Quotes

“JPY short positions against USD and GBP fell sharply, as JPY weakened against them. USD/JPY long positions dropped to JPY1349bn ($11.2bn) from JPY2017bn the previous month, while GBP/JPY positions were also reduced to JPY91bn ($0.8bn) from JPY318bn the previous month.”

“USD/JPY long positions held by Japanese margin traders are likely to have declined further in November, as USD/JPY continues to trade strongly.”

“In contrast, speculative JPY short positions at IMM have been increasing, as expected from the recent price action. JPY short positions are still about 65% of the latest peak in mid-August and USD/JPY will still likely be able to test 125 by year-end, as the market prices in a higher likelihood of a December lift-off. Japanese investment in foreign portfolio flows also remains USD/JPY positive, in our view.”

“Toshin sales: There was net selling of JPY4bn (USD30mn) in foreign currency-denominated toshins on 13 November, according to NRI. This was the third consecutive business day of net selling.”

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