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Nov 18, 2015
USD/JPY long positions by margin traders fall - Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, notes that the JPY short positions at major OTC margin trading brokers declined to JPY2460bn ($20.5bn) as of end-October, from JPY3311bn the previous month, according to the Financial Futures Association of Japan.
Key Quotes
“JPY short positions against USD and GBP fell sharply, as JPY weakened against them. USD/JPY long positions dropped to JPY1349bn ($11.2bn) from JPY2017bn the previous month, while GBP/JPY positions were also reduced to JPY91bn ($0.8bn) from JPY318bn the previous month.”
“USD/JPY long positions held by Japanese margin traders are likely to have declined further in November, as USD/JPY continues to trade strongly.”
“In contrast, speculative JPY short positions at IMM have been increasing, as expected from the recent price action. JPY short positions are still about 65% of the latest peak in mid-August and USD/JPY will still likely be able to test 125 by year-end, as the market prices in a higher likelihood of a December lift-off. Japanese investment in foreign portfolio flows also remains USD/JPY positive, in our view.”
“Toshin sales: There was net selling of JPY4bn (USD30mn) in foreign currency-denominated toshins on 13 November, according to NRI. This was the third consecutive business day of net selling.”
Key Quotes
“JPY short positions against USD and GBP fell sharply, as JPY weakened against them. USD/JPY long positions dropped to JPY1349bn ($11.2bn) from JPY2017bn the previous month, while GBP/JPY positions were also reduced to JPY91bn ($0.8bn) from JPY318bn the previous month.”
“USD/JPY long positions held by Japanese margin traders are likely to have declined further in November, as USD/JPY continues to trade strongly.”
“In contrast, speculative JPY short positions at IMM have been increasing, as expected from the recent price action. JPY short positions are still about 65% of the latest peak in mid-August and USD/JPY will still likely be able to test 125 by year-end, as the market prices in a higher likelihood of a December lift-off. Japanese investment in foreign portfolio flows also remains USD/JPY positive, in our view.”
“Toshin sales: There was net selling of JPY4bn (USD30mn) in foreign currency-denominated toshins on 13 November, according to NRI. This was the third consecutive business day of net selling.”