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EUR/NOK expected to drop towards 8.80 in 12-m – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at Danske Bank Kristoffer Lomholt sees the cross grinding lower towards the 8.80 area in a 12-month horizon.

Key Quotes

“Over the past weeks markets have priced out the probability of a 17 December rate cut from Norges Bank. While we do not expect a rate cut, we do see downside risks to NOK going into the meeting, especially if we are right in our call on both the ECB and the Riksbank stepping up easing ahead of the decision”.

“Also seasonality will be a negative for the Norwegian currency in the coming months and historically EUR/NOK has risen by roughly 2% in the final six weeks of the year”.

“Importantly, from most fundamental perspectives the NOK remains very cheap, which together with stretched speculative positioning should become a NOK positive when the business cycle turns and Norges Bank can signal that there is no need for further rate cuts. This, however, will be a story for mid-2016”.

“We leave our forecasts unchanged at 9.40 in 1M, 9.40 in 3M, 9.25 in 6M and 8.80 in 12M (both unchanged)”.

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