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USD, GBP: Key inflation data releases & Minutes - MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that we get key inflation data tomorrow from both the US and the UK with both reports important for monetary policy decisions.

Key Quotes

“The more important report is probably from the US with the December FOMC decision “live” in contrast to the BOE decision which appears at least six months away.”

“We have a view that the level of inflation in the US is not hugely problematic and the concerns of certain FOMC officials over “too low inflation” are somewhat unjustified. Yes, the FOMC has an objective of inflation at around 2% which is not being achieved but the annual core CPI rate is likely to be 1.9% today while the Trimmed Mean measure from the Cleveland Fed is currently at 1.8%, slightly above the 1.7% average rate since the end of the last recession. With average earnings in the US now drifting higher, we would expect that to start acting as a key support for underlying inflation in the US.”

“The other key event from the US will be the minutes from the October FOMC meeting. That report is likely to reveal the strength of opposition amongst some members over the inclusion of the reference to the “next meeting” as a clear signal that a rate increase in December was possible. Still, the speeches and rhetoric since that meeting has taken some of the importance of these minutes away as has the fact that the minutes pre-dated the very strong jobs report that was released the following week.”

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