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Grounds for a Dec Fed hike - Socgen

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Societe Generale offer the grounds for a Fed hike, or not, in December.

Key Quotes:

"The FOMC will raise rates in December, unless put off by softer economic data, falling commodity prices, a strong dollar or emerging market volatility. The ECB appears ready to ease further in the same month.

The dollar will continue to be supported for the next month by this prospect. What happens after that depends on how broader markets react. A negative risk reaction would see both yen and euro outperform the dollar.

Where and when the dollar peaks will depend more on how expectations about terminal Fed Funds evolve than what happens in December. That suggests the dollar’s peak is some way away – in late 2016 or early 2017."

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