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US payrolls to add 155K in October - Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, suggests that in October, incoming data on labor markets have been mixed, and again are not suggestive of a rebound to an above-200k gain in payrolls.

Key Quotes

“Although initial and continuing jobless claims data are at low levels, survey data have been on balance tilted to the downside in October.”

“On balance, we forecast that private payrolls added a net new 155k workers (Consensus: 169k), with a 10k increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 165k jobs in October (Consensus: 182k). We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 10k (Consensus: -4k) in October, as the employment subindex in many regional manufacturing surveys remained negative in the month.”

“With continuing jobless claims falling further in October, we expect the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1pp to 5.0% (Consensus: 5.0%). Last, we expect average hourly earnings to rebound in October to 0.3% m-o-m growth (Consensus: 0.2%) as earnings were flat in September (likely held down to some extent by a calendar quirk).”

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