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Steady non-farm payroll number to raise the possibility of a December rate hike

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The U.S. October employment report will be released today by the Labour Department. Job growth had slowed to just below 140,000 on average in September and August. So far in 2015 the US job creation has averaged almost 200K per month, below the 260K averaged in 2014. It is however stronger than the historical average of 122K figure reached ever since the statistics began in 1939. The current unemployment rate that stands at 5.1% is well below the historical average of 5.83% and better than the FED minimum comfort level.

Non-farm private employment for October beat expectations

Payroll processing firm ADP on Wednesday reported a rise in the U.S. non-farm private employment for October by a seasonally adjusted 182,000, beating expectations. The figures have boosted optimism leading the markets to expect steady figures when the government jobs report is released on Thursday. 180,000 new jobs are expected to have been added in October and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.1%. A steady non-farm payroll number will raise the possibility of a December rate hike.

Yesterday’s weekly jobless claims data are from November showed that initial claims rose by 16k, which brings the 4-week average to 263k. The challenger survey also showed that 50.4k job cuts were announced in October, 1.3% lower than a year ago.

Wage figure not likely to disappoint

Wages are expected to have inched higher. Wage inflation has been relatively subdued despite the decline in the unemployment rate. If wage inflation starts to increase, it would signify that the labour market has indeed become tight. This would in turn present a strong case for a near-term Fed funds rate hike. In the past two months job growth had stayed below the 150,000 figure needed for the Fed to begin the hiking cycle. If the non-farm payroll figure matches the forecast of 170k, the possibility of a December rate hike will rise close to 65%.

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