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US: Strong NFP on the cards – Goldman Sachs

FXStreet (Delhi) - Chris Mischaikow, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, suggests that based on the better than expected labor market data this week, we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously.

Key Quotes

“Our revised forecast is marginally above consensus expectations of 182k by about 0.1 standard deviation of a typical surprise. Labor market indicators were generally improved from September, although the manufacturing sector continued to disappoint. We forecast the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1% due to our expectation for a rebound in the labor force participation rate. Finally, average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% in October after a weaker than expected September figure.

“Our forecast is up from the August and September gains of 136k and 142k, but in line with the average year to date gain in 2015 of 198k. Labor market indicators were mixed in October, with the employment components of service sector surveys generally stronger and manufacturing sector surveys generally weaker.”

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