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Fade the spikes to 1.10 in EUR/USD – Westpac

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Richard Franulovich, Strategist at Westpac, has recommended selling the pair on occasional tests of the 1.10 handle.

Key Quotes

“EUR down move likely stalls if only temporarily into key 1.0800/10 support in coming days”.

“Upside risks to US retail sales though could see that level taken out next week”.

“The very well-worn theme of ECB-Fed policy divergence should get a good airing in the next several weeks leading up to the ECB and Fed December meetings”.

EUR if anything has some catch up work on the downside, even allowing for its sharp fall in recent days, before it is more fairly valued vs this theme”.

EUR/USD for example is merely testing its July 2015 lows near 1.08 yet the 2yr
Bund-Tsy spread is well through July levels and is testing 9 year lows (-117bp). EUR/USD a strong sell on any bounce into 1.10”.

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