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US nonfarm payroll preview: Upward revision coming – Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce that US nonfarm payrolls grew by a net 165k and private payrolls grew by 155k in October.

Key Quotes

“This is an upward revision of 10k and 15k to our original forecast for nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls of 155k and 140k, respectively. The upward revision reflects the reported ADP private payrolls, which were higher than we expected, and the ISM nonmanufacturing index for October.”

“Although these were positive developments for US labor markets, we remain skeptical that we will see job growth return back to its previous trend of +200k as other incoming data suggest that external factors continue to weigh on US manufacturing and mining activity.”

“Consistent with this view, we forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 10k in October. Moreover, as we approach “full employment”, we expect payrolls to grow at a less robust pace than observed over the past several quarters.”

“The insured unemployment rate from the unemployment insurance claims report trended lower over the month and supports our call for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.0% from 5.1% in October. Furthermore, the unemployment rate stood on an unrounded basis at 5.051% in September, suggesting a relatively low bar for the unemployment rate to decline 0.1pp on a rounded basis.”

Click here to get more insight about the upcoming US NFP data with detailed preview from our in house Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik titled: “Nonfarm Payrolls: Can it confirm a December rate hike?

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