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USD: Flood of Fed speakers may disappoint markets on outlook - MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that a very large number of Fed speakers scheduled today through tomorrow but we are not quite sure how much light these speaking engagement will throw on the dark unknown that is whether the Fed will raise rates in December.

Key Quotes

“By our count, there will be ten Fed speaking events Wednesday and Thursday – Brainard, Harker (twice), Yellen, Dudley (twice), Fischer (twice), Lockhart and Tarullo (not sure on exact time, might be Friday) – and all of those speakers will be voting on 16th December apart from Harker. On top of that we will have a speech by former Chairman Bernanke.”

“However, bar the event from Vice Chair Fischer at the National Economists Club tonight at 00:30 GMT, most of the other speaking engagements do not appear to be specifically on the macro-economic or monetary policy outlook.”

“Brainard this morning speaks on financial stability; Harker this afternoon is only giving opening remarks at an event on ‘Capital in the Communities’; Yellen is testifying this afternoon on bank regulation; and Dudley speaks this evening on “income variance”. Tomorrow it’s more of the same with topics covered like “banking culture” and the future of large international banks.”

“So if your expectations are high that we may get some direction from Fed speakers, you should perhaps lower those expectations. Chair Yellen gives testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on 3rd December and that really looks like the most credible platform for the Fed to give the final clarity on thinking ahead of the meeting on 16th December.”

“That said, if any of these speaking engagements do address the monetary policy outlook, we would expect at least an endorsement of the statement released by the FOMC on 28th October. The message should therefore be that December remains live and if the data does not deteriorate from here then the Fed is set to hike.”

“With ECB President Draghi last night again reiterating the potential for more easing in December, the EUR/USD rate is set to remain under downward pressure.”

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