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USD keeps its bullish stance intact – BAML

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, the greenback’s bullish prospect for the upcoming periods remain unchanged.

Key Quotes

“The USD more than reversed its post September FOMC weakness. Despite this, USD long positions are the lowest they’ve been since the USD rally began in mid-2014”.

“We continue to believe the trend is higher in the USD despite near-term uncertainty with respect to the Fed’s reaction function in light of an uncertain global environment, slowing labor market momentum, an increasingly vocal support for patience in raising rates from Fed Governors Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo”.

“The ECB’s strong signal of additional QE in December and potential deposit rate cut supports our policy divergence theme, but in the absence of a meaningful pickup in US data that cements Fed expectations, the timing of expected USD strength could be delayed”.

“We continue to expect policy divergence and US growth outperformance to underpin the dollar though Fed uncertainty raises risks to the timing of our call. We leave our EUR/USD forecasts to 1.05 for year-end 2015, and still see parity at end-Q1 2016. Yearend USD/JPY forecasts remain at 125, while GBP/USD remains at 1.48 and 1.47 for YE ’15 and ’16”.

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