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Advance US Q3 GDP preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - As dust settles over the Fed aftermath, the next risk event that is expected to garner a lot of attention is the first estimate of the third quarter US GDP release. The US GDP estimate is due to be published at 12.30GMT, with markets widely anticipating a sharp deceleration in the pace of growth in the September quarter.

Poor US Q3 GDP to pour cold water over Dec Fed rate-hike bets?

Markets are predicting the advance Q3 GDP to show a 1.6% increase y/y, less than half of the expansion seen in the previous quarter. The second quarter witnessed a solid 3.9% expansion in the US economic growth.

Earlier this week, corporate spending in the US dropped 1.2% in September, following a 3% drop in August, an even bigger downturn than first reported. Orders in a category that serves as a proxy for business investment fell 0.3% after a 1.6% drop in August.

In case the GDP estimate surprises on the upside, then it would further reinforce Dec Fed rate rise expectations as the Fed remains data-dependent for policy normalization. Not forgetting, there remain two more NFP reports to monitor ahead of the Dec gathering.

Analysts at TDS noted, "With the Fed muscling market pricing for 2015 rate hikes back above the 50% mark, the market’s attention will shift back to fundamentals. We look for Q3 GDP to show a deceleration in the pace of growth momentum to 1.5% from 3.9% in Q2. The devil will be in the details for the market reaction, and we look for personal consumption to remain strong at 3.4% as final domestic demand continues to grow at a 3.0% pace. If the details of the report are stronger than the headline reading suggests, Treasuries could continue to bear flatten as the market pushes December hike odds higher still.”

EUR/USD: Key levels to watch

The pair keeps its recovery mode intact around 1.0970 and could extend upwards should the US GDP data disappoint markets. Hence, the next resistance in sight is placed at 1.1046/50 (daily R1/ psychological levels), above which 1.1082 (200-DMA) could be tested. A breach of the last would open doors for a test of 1.1114 (10-DMA). In case, the data surprises on the upside, a renewed buying interest around the USD will be seen, dragging the major towards the immediate support at 1.09/1.0897 (psychological levels/ Oct 28 Low). Selling pressure will intensify below the last, dragging the pair towards 1.0844/40 (daily S1/ Aug lows) and below that 1.0800 (round number) could be exposed.

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