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Fed teases market into talking Dec rate hike - SocGen

FXStreet (Bali) - Should conditions warrant, the Fed will raise rates at their December meeting, that's the conclusion reached by Kit Juckes, Global Head of FX Strategy at Societe Generale.

Key Quotes

"The FOMC left the door ajar. If markets don’t tighten financial conditions for them, if the US data remain firm, if global events don’t scare them and if the sun shines every day, the Fed will raise rates at their December meeting."

"All those caveats leave the market pricing the odds of a move at close to 50%, and the focus switches immediately to data-watching. Today that means jobless claims (exp 270k) and Q3 GDP. We expect a 2.4% gain, the forecast revised up after the trade data released yesterday, while the consensus is looking for looking for 1.6% (according to Bloomberg)."

"Inventories will be a big, temporary drag and guesses of how big vary. The consensus forecast for personal consumption growth is at 3.3%, our forecast at 3.5%. Real domestic final sales probably grew at a similar rate, slightly slower than the 3.7% of Q1 and that’s a far better measure of the health of the US economy right now, than the GDP figure itself."

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