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CBR could cut rates this week – TDS

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Russian central bank could lower its benchmark rates by 50 bp at its meeting later in the week, according to Cristian Maggio, Head of EM Strategy at TD Securities.

Key Quotes

“The CBR is undoubtedly keen to lower rates in order to stimulate the struggling economy. This is a process they have interrupted in September to avoid fuelling more volatility”.

“However, markets have considerably calmed down now and although CPI inflation remains high at 15.7% Y/Y in September, with the downward trend interrupted by tariff hikes in July, base effects should ensure that the headline inflation falls quickly as we move into the New Year”.

“We think it is a close call, but not as close as the consensus was showing at the end of last week, with a small prevalence of analysts expecting rates unchanged. Resumption of trading this week has brought slight more strength to the RUB and increased the odds of a rate cut on Friday. The consensus has also drifted towards a 50bp cut, although expectations remain close to 50/50 between a hold and a cut”.

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