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NZD/USD could stabilize around 0.70 – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the pair stabilizing around the psychological 0.70 mark.

Key Quotes

“The significant terms-of-trade shock which New Zealand has suffered over the course of the past year is feeding through to the growth and inflation outlook”.

“The RBNZ is in easing mode but with 25bp in the way of cuts already priced on RBNZ over the next year, we see limited downside pressure on NZD from this side”.

“However, as we look for USD strength returning in the near future ahead of a first Fed hike in January, NZD/USD could still move lower on a sustained divergence in monetary policy”.

“We thus expect NZD/USD to edge lower again near term. On a 6-12M horizon we do, however, expect negative factors for NZD/USD to slowly fade, and with upside risks to agricultural prices from a structural point of view, we expect NZD/USD to stabilise around the 0.70 mark, our long-held 12M forecast. We have kept our 3-12M forecasts unchanged”.

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