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Oct 21, 2015
ECB Preview: Dovish tone in play – Rabobank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Elwin de Groot, Senior Eurozone Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that there has been a consistent tone in most recent comments by ECB Governing Council members and have not strayed far from the stance communicated in the September press conference.
Key Quotes
“Dovish comments made last week by Governing Council member Nowotny were seen by some commentators as a departure from this 'policy line' (as some commentators saw him as hinting at fresh measures), but we believe that Nowotny's comments were taken out of context.”
“In a nutshell, the key message of the Governing Council's stance is that whilst weakness in demand in emerging markets is not something that is about to go away anytime soon and that downside risks to the economy have increased, it is too early to draw a firm conclusion with regard to the need for fresh policy measures.”
“Altogether we believe that the ECB will largely repeat that message in this week's press conference, which will be held in Malta. With market participants increasingly speculating about additional policy measures, there is some risk that the market could be disappointed.”
“However, the tone of this week's message is likely to remain dovish in any case. Indeed, we believe the ECB is merely buying time to get a better grip on underlying developments. We stick to our view that an expansion/extension of the asset purchase program is the most likely next step by the ECB, but we believe this will take place in December at the earliest.”
Key Quotes
“Dovish comments made last week by Governing Council member Nowotny were seen by some commentators as a departure from this 'policy line' (as some commentators saw him as hinting at fresh measures), but we believe that Nowotny's comments were taken out of context.”
“In a nutshell, the key message of the Governing Council's stance is that whilst weakness in demand in emerging markets is not something that is about to go away anytime soon and that downside risks to the economy have increased, it is too early to draw a firm conclusion with regard to the need for fresh policy measures.”
“Altogether we believe that the ECB will largely repeat that message in this week's press conference, which will be held in Malta. With market participants increasingly speculating about additional policy measures, there is some risk that the market could be disappointed.”
“However, the tone of this week's message is likely to remain dovish in any case. Indeed, we believe the ECB is merely buying time to get a better grip on underlying developments. We stick to our view that an expansion/extension of the asset purchase program is the most likely next step by the ECB, but we believe this will take place in December at the earliest.”