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EM central banks’ activity ahead in the week – BBH

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH noted this week’s central banks’ meetings.

Key Quotes

Turkey central bank meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 7.5%. CPI rose 8% y/y in September, well above the 3-7% target range. With the lira vulnerable ahead of November 1 elections, we think the central bank is on hold for the time being. Latest polls show the ruling AKP with 40.5% support, barely changed from the 40.9% support it saw in the June vote. As such, political uncertainty may continue well past November 1”.

Brazil central bank meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 14.25%. Earlier that day, Brazil reports mid-October IPCA inflation, which is expected to rise 9.78% y/y vs. 9.57% in mid-September. Analyst expectations are universally seeing steady policy this month, but market pricing shows some tightening expected at the November and January meetings. Current account and FDI data for September will be reported Friday. The current account is expected at -$2.2 bln, which would see the 12-month total fall to around -4% of GDP”.

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