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USD remains bullish in the longer run – Westpac

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In spite of the current soft tone, the bullish perspective for the US dollar remains intact on the long term, noted strategists at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“USD continues to look vulnerable, a setback on Sep retail sales update the latest "growth" wound. Yet, even with that soft data print to hand and FOMC Governors' Tarullo and Brainard sounding a notebook caution over lift-off (both arguably closer to the FOMC leadership), OIS markets still discount a 30pct chance of a Fed hike by year's end”.

“Dec Fed hike odds understandably won't fall to zero but they are more likely than not to continue to drift lower, weighing on the USD”.

“Our surprise index has further to fall too if past tightening in financial conditions are anything to go by”.

USD index can fall to 93/94 into year’s end. The longer term uptrend in the USD though likely remains intact. Soft data trends in the near term will be a challenge for the USD but 2016 should still see a relatively healthier US picture emerge than many parts of the world”.

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