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Time has come to sell the Pound – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Oliver Harvey, Macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the Sterling has been the worst performing G10 currency over the last month, the broad GBP TWI now down 3% from its mid-August peak.

Key Quotes

“Positioning As noted last week, our new CORAX indicator showed GBP was one of fast money’s favourite momentum trades over the past few years and they have remained modest buyers in this one. As trends slow, GBP has thus suffered from de-risking. Looking ahead, the market probably remains moderately long, but higher frequency CORAX data and the TFF report suggests positioning is lighter.”

“Bank of England repricing Curve-implied tightening shifted out lots this autumn, with the first hike now not fully discounted until well into 2017 and short-end euro-sterling rate spreads have correspondingly narrowed. Data has slowed: the composite PMI has dropped to 53, implying below trend growth, and last week’s earnings numbers indicate wage pressures are not rising as rapidly as once thought.”

“M&A boom a bright spot The flow environment continues to be constructive. BoP data shows large debt inflows over H1. Meanwhile, the UK is the largest beneficiary of this year’s global M&A bonanza. Our latest high frequency Cross Border M&A monitor showed 2yr inflows accelerated to all-time highs of USD 250bn.”

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