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Stimulus coming, but from where? – Rabobank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that there is a growing market sentiment that more stimulus needs to be coming from somewhere soon.

Key Quotes

“It might be China (which is why a better-than-expected number was a negative, not a positive, even though beyond the optics things still look worrying to us, as noted); it might be Japan; it might be Europe; and – whisper it – might it even be the US at some point in 2016?”

“Of course, matters aren’t helped by the fact that where debt is rising in economies such as the US, it’s into the least productive areas: it does no-one much good if student loans surge, or if corporations borrow to buy back their own shares. So, in short, more QE will be needed – and then even more FX volatility is going to follow in its wake.”

“Chinese capital outflows are now seen topping USD500bn; and that the much-lauded TPP risks triggering Chinese counter-measures via its “One Belt One Road” plan. Both of those developments are potentially major issues for 2016, if not late 2015.”

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