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US: Dec rate hike still coming – Goldman Sachs

FXStreet (Delhi) – Samuel Wong, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, suggests that he still expect a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting as the leadership has signaled that such a move is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected, and our forecast is similar to theirs.

Key Quotes

“However, we are only about 60% confident. Most of the uncertainty relates to the possibility that the economic and market environment—or in a broad sense, “the data”—will be worse than the FOMC’s (and our) expectations.”

“The low market implied probability of a December hike of only 30%40% probably reflects a mixture of concerns about the data (which we find reasonable) and a belief among some market participants that the FOMC will find an “excuse” to stay on hold even if the economy does fine (which we find unreasonable).”

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