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Oct 16, 2015
Russia could be downgraded today – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at TD Securities Cristian Maggio sees the likeliness of agency Fitch to downgrade Russia’s credit rating today.
Key Quotes
“Russia will be subject to rating revisions today and could suffer at least one downgrade. I also anticipated that the market is already pricing—at least in CDS terms—nearly two notches of further downgrades from as many agencies. In this respect, any short-term negative RUB reaction is likely to be an overshoot that should quickly correct and thus offers a tactical opportunity to buy RUB”.
“We think there is a 50% chance of a Fitch downgrade, as this agency remains the only one that still rates Russia IG. However, given that S&P’s rating is already one notch lower than Fitch’s, we think that an S&P downgrade is somewhat less likely”.
“But clearly, a double downgrade today would be the most negative of all outcomes and could carry lasting effects, especially if the outlooks are left negative from both agencies”.
Key Quotes
“Russia will be subject to rating revisions today and could suffer at least one downgrade. I also anticipated that the market is already pricing—at least in CDS terms—nearly two notches of further downgrades from as many agencies. In this respect, any short-term negative RUB reaction is likely to be an overshoot that should quickly correct and thus offers a tactical opportunity to buy RUB”.
“We think there is a 50% chance of a Fitch downgrade, as this agency remains the only one that still rates Russia IG. However, given that S&P’s rating is already one notch lower than Fitch’s, we think that an S&P downgrade is somewhat less likely”.
“But clearly, a double downgrade today would be the most negative of all outcomes and could carry lasting effects, especially if the outlooks are left negative from both agencies”.