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US CPI data likely to reflect subdue inflationary pressure - Rabobank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Piotr Matys, EM FX Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that the US CPI data should reflect subdue inflationary pressure with the headline rate expected to fall 0.1% y/y in September from 0.2% y/y in August, according to Bloomberg’s survey.

Key Quotes

“Compared to previous month, prices are predicted to fall by 0.2% after falling by 0.1% previously. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices are anticipated to be significantly higher at 1.8% y/y.”

“After disappointing non-farm payrolls report for September, the market could be sensitive to initial claims seen increasing marginally to 270,000 in the week ending of October 10 after falling to 263,000 previously to the lowest since the middle of July.”

“Following the sharp fall to -6.0 in September (most likely caused by the volatility in financial markets) from 8.3 in August, the Philadelphia Fed index survey is seen bouncing back to -2.0 in October. A rebound from -14.67 in September to -8.0 is also expected in the Empire Manufacturing index.”

“We will also hear from New York Fed President William Dudley and FOMC non-voters James Bullard and Loretta Mester. Earlier this week comments from Daniel Tarullo and Lael Brainard, who spoke in favour of delaying a rate hike, indicated that perhaps the Fed could be far more divided on the timing of the first hike.”

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