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US CPI preview: What to expect in EUR/USD?

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair fell to a low of 1.1425 in Europe on the back of gains in the European stocks, marking a failure to sustain above 1.1475 (161.8% expansion of the March low-March high-April low) ahead of the US CPI figure release.

Fed Q1 2016 rate hike bets could be wiped out

The US CPI is seen falling at an annualised rate of 0.1%, while the core inflation is seen remaining unchanged at 1.8%. Heading into the report, the Fed March 2016 rate hike probability stands at 50%. The dismal US retail sales released yesterday has raised questions on whether the US economy would be able to sustain a rate hike, thereby leading to a broad based sell-off in the USD.

Consequently, the USD bulls may be at their weakest in almost a year as we head into the CPI report. A negative print could be enough to push rate hike bets further out in Q2 2016, however, a more serious damage would be seen if the headline figure and the core figure miss estimates.

As again, the response from the EUR/USD pair depends more on the reaction in the equity markets. The CPI printing in line with estimates/or falling more than estimates could push out rate hike bets and lead to a rally in the equities and a drop in the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, a positive surprise could strengthen the case for a rate hike in Q1 2016 and weigh over stock prices, which could support the EUR.

Meanwhile, the real average weekly earnings and the weekly initial jobless claims report could receive little attention unless the actual figures miss/beat estimates by a big margin.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

At 1.1437, the immediate resistance is seen at 1.1475 (161.8% expansion of the March low-March high-April low). The pair could take out the same and rise to 1.1561 (Aug 26 high) in case the US CPI figure triggers a negative reaction in the equity markets. On the other hand, immediate support is seen at 1.14, under which the pair could target 1.1318 (Oct 2 low) in case the equity markets turn risk-on after the US CPI release.

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