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US Fed’s lift-off expectations further put-off – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Jim Reid, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank, notes that the Fed rate hike expectations were hit hard with the release of weak US data, and now the December and March expectations are down to 27% and 49% as of this morning, a fall of 8% and 10% respectively relative to 24 hours ago.

Key Quotes

“Along with the US PPI numbers, soft September retail sales data saw US Treasury yields tumble lower and Fed rate hike expectations pushed back further.”

“Looking at the details, headline retail sales advanced +0.1% mom last month, below expectations of +0.2% with the August print revised down two-tenths alongside. The numbers were softer than expected at the core too.”

“That saw the Atlanta Fed nudge down their Q3 GDP forecast by a tenth to 0.9%, while US Treasury yields (-7.2bps) marched back below 2% to close at 1.973%. The USD came under pressure and finished weaker against all but just three currencies yesterday (with the Dollar index down 0.89%).”

AUD/JPY offered at hourly 100-SMA, wavers around 87

The cross in the AUD/JPY halted its recovery mode and met fresh supply at the hourly 100-SMA located at 87.50 and witnessed a 50 pips sell-off thereon.
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